Will Voter Unpredictability Continue in 2018?

Much has been written about the increased polarization of America and its collective impact on communities. There were many surprises in the 2016 election and people are bracing for a potentially tumultuous 2018 mid-term election. Ohio, where I live, is one of the swing states. The average county in Ohio changed nearly 8% (based on election over election % change) in the 2016 presidential election to Republican but this is a reversal of the 8% movement towards Democrat in the 2008 election. Are voters fickle or are traditional parties becoming less dominant?

 

The map below shows the movement from Democrat to Republican (shift is in blue) from 2012 to 2016. No big surprise there, but the map following shows the same movement from Democrat to Republican (shift is in red) from 2004 to 2008; in essence the big reversal. Some counties stayed and moved within their dominant party (e.g. Franklin County), but most simply swung heavily from one party to the other.

 

2016 Election

 

2008 Election

 

So what does that have to do with communities? Voter data is increasingly in the conversation when it comes to community health, planning, and economic development. We are pleased to announce the immediate availability of the Leip Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections data through the Public Insight On-Demand Data Service. Dave Leip has been a leading authority on election results since 1992 and is frequently cited in many healthy communities analyses. The data includes president, governor, house, and senate election results as well as voter registrations and, where available, voter participation. You can download this data at a state or county level.   

Share This Story

Similar Posts

  • Death Rate Continues to Inch Up

    The mortality (or death) rate increased nominally from 2016 to 2017 going from 844 to 849 deaths per 100,000. This probably is not earthshaking news but based on the overall crude rate, it has actually been increasing since 2009 as noted by the following graph.   Advances in medical care…

  • Distance Education Programs up 8.2%

    Distance Education continues its upward climb according to the most recent distance education data from IPEDS. The number of programs increased 8.2% in 2016, but this increase was less than the whopping 12.6% in 2015. There are now over 29,000 programs offered through distance education. Certificate programs continued their strong…

  • Degrees, Jobs, and Crosswalks

    My daughter has a Bachelor’s Degree in Fine Arts with a concentration in Cartooning and Illustration. Today, she is a quality assurance manager for a software company. I am very glad that her career has morphed into a burgeoning field because it was very clear to me that it would…

  • The Race for Nurses

    There is a race that is brewing between millenials who are becoming registered nurses and the hiring that has started at U.S. hospitals. A Health Affairs study concluded that Millennials are becoming registered nurses at nearly twice the rate of baby boomers, but that still won’t necessarily prevent a nursing shortage…