Will Voter Unpredictability Continue in 2018?

Much has been written about the increased polarization of America and its collective impact on communities. There were many surprises in the 2016 election and people are bracing for a potentially tumultuous 2018 mid-term election. Ohio, where I live, is one of the swing states. The average county in Ohio changed nearly 8% (based on election over election % change) in the 2016 presidential election to Republican but this is a reversal of the 8% movement towards Democrat in the 2008 election. Are voters fickle or are traditional parties becoming less dominant?

 

The map below shows the movement from Democrat to Republican (shift is in blue) from 2012 to 2016. No big surprise there, but the map following shows the same movement from Democrat to Republican (shift is in red) from 2004 to 2008; in essence the big reversal. Some counties stayed and moved within their dominant party (e.g. Franklin County), but most simply swung heavily from one party to the other.

 

2016 Election

 

2008 Election

 

So what does that have to do with communities? Voter data is increasingly in the conversation when it comes to community health, planning, and economic development. We are pleased to announce the immediate availability of the Leip Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections data through the Public Insight On-Demand Data Service. Dave Leip has been a leading authority on election results since 1992 and is frequently cited in many healthy communities analyses. The data includes president, governor, house, and senate election results as well as voter registrations and, where available, voter participation. You can download this data at a state or county level.   

Share This Story

Similar Posts

  • Death Rates Rise Sharply for Millenials

    The new CDC mortality data continues to paint a rather grim picture. Last week we focused on the external causes of the rise in death rates. This week we analyzed the mortality (death) rate among age groups using over 1.8 billion data points over 17 years from the CDC. You…

  • COVID-19 Dashboard with NYT Data

    Analyze COVID-19 Cases by National, State and County Level It is important for today’s business leaders to consider the impact of COVID-19 when making decisions and allocating resources. The accuracy of COVID-19 data reported by news sources and online publications goes beyond the numbers themselves, the interpretation of the statistics…

  • Decoding Outcome Measures Data

    Breaking Down the Second Year Student Success Measure The IPEDS Outcome Measures data was designed as a supplement to graduation rate data which has always been questioned as an effective measure for measuring student outcomes. Outcome Measures is now in year two of its collection and provides a lot of…

  • The Gender Debt Disparity

    The Huffington Post recently posted a very interesting article on gender debt disparity. The article notes that women hold nearly two-thirds of all student debt – a whopping $833 billion dollars. The article postulates that women also take longer to pay off the debt because they earn less than men….

  • Healthcare Rankings and the Healthiest Cities

    We in the U.S. love our rankings. I think it is embedded in our DNA. As a student of data, I love to see the various rankings and how people get worked up over them. Healthgrades recently released its latest analysis of top quality hospitals and its National Health Index, which…

  • Student Debt Rises 13%

    The newest College Scorecard data released several weeks ago reveals an ongoing trend in student debt. The median student debt increased 13.1% from 2015 to 2016. The median student debt has now more than doubled since 2007 as shown by the following graph. We calculated this using a weighted average…