Will Voter Unpredictability Continue in 2018?

Much has been written about the increased polarization of America and its collective impact on communities. There were many surprises in the 2016 election and people are bracing for a potentially tumultuous 2018 mid-term election. Ohio, where I live, is one of the swing states. The average county in Ohio changed nearly 8% (based on election over election % change) in the 2016 presidential election to Republican but this is a reversal of the 8% movement towards Democrat in the 2008 election. Are voters fickle or are traditional parties becoming less dominant?

 

The map below shows the movement from Democrat to Republican (shift is in blue) from 2012 to 2016. No big surprise there, but the map following shows the same movement from Democrat to Republican (shift is in red) from 2004 to 2008; in essence the big reversal. Some counties stayed and moved within their dominant party (e.g. Franklin County), but most simply swung heavily from one party to the other.

 

2016 Election

 

2008 Election

 

So what does that have to do with communities? Voter data is increasingly in the conversation when it comes to community health, planning, and economic development. We are pleased to announce the immediate availability of the Leip Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections data through the Public Insight On-Demand Data Service. Dave Leip has been a leading authority on election results since 1992 and is frequently cited in many healthy communities analyses. The data includes president, governor, house, and senate election results as well as voter registrations and, where available, voter participation. You can download this data at a state or county level.   

Share This Story

Similar Posts

  • Visualizing Student Debt and Earnings

    Leveraging Scatterplots to Analyze the New College Scorecard Data There has always been a symbiotic relationship between student debt and student earnings. As student debt has creeped up in recent years, there has also been a data gap with post-graduation earnings. The most recent College Scorecard data is a first…

  • Is Education Required for Fast Growing Jobs?

    A hot topic, especially when new job projections come out, is whether the high growth jobs require much in the way of education. Jed Kolko at Indeed Hiring Labs did a very thorough job of analyzing projected occupational growth against their respective education requirements. His conclusion was that the slower…

  • More Students Paying Out-of-State Tuition Rates

    Over 230,000 students pay out-of-state tuition rates compared to approximately 1.5 million students who pay in-state or in-district rates according to the most recent cohort group from IPEDS. This represents 13.09% of the students and continues an upward progression of out-of-state paying students.    The number of students paying out-of-state…

  • Outpatient Medicare Hospital Costs up 13%

    The 2016 outpatient procedure data shows overall hospital volume up 11% from 2015. Using data from the Outpatient Procedure Analysis Interactive, we also found that the volume times the average full cost (weighted average cost) on a procedure basis has increased 13.3%. We ran the numbers several ways – first…

  • Infection Procedures Top Inpatient Volume Growth

    While Medicare inpatient procedure volume has remained flat since 2013, infections are a significant area of high volume change. The treemap below from the Inpatient Procedure Analysis Interactive shows the inpatient volume growth by procedure with color coding by volume change from 2013-2015 using the Medicare Provider and Analysis Review…